Cluster analysis on summer precipitation field over Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004     

LU Heli  SHAO Quanqin  LIU Jiyuan  WANG Junbang  CHEN Shenbin  CHEN Zhuoqi 《地理学报》2008,18(3):295-307

The summer day-by-day precipitation data of 97 meteorological stations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004 were selected to analyze the temporal-spatial dis-tribution through accumulated variance, correlation analysis, regression analysis, empirical orthogonal function, power spectrum function and spatial analysis tools of GIS. The result showed that summer precipitation occupied a relatively high proportion in the area with less annual precipitation on the Plateau and the correlation between summer precipitation and annual precipitation was strong. The altitude of these stations and summer precipitation ten-dency presented stronger positive correlation below 2000 m, with correlation value up to 0.604 (α=0.01). The subtracting tendency values between 1961–1983 and 1984–2004 at five altitude ranges (2000–2500 m, 2500–3000 m, 3500–4000 m, 4000–4500 m and above 4500 m) were above zero and accounted for 71.4% of the total. Using empirical orthogonal function, summer precipitation could be roughly divided into three precipitation pattern fields: the Southeast Plateau Pattern Field, the Northeast Plateau Pattern field and the Three Rivers' Headstream Regions Pattern Field. The former two ones had a reverse value from the north to the south and opposite line was along 35°N. The potential cycles of the three pattern fields were 5.33a, 21.33a and 2.17a respectively, tested by the confidence probability of 90%. The station altitudes and summer precipitation potential cycles presented strong negative corre-lation in the stations above 4500 m, with correlation value of –0.626 (α=0.01). In Three Rivers Headstream Regions summer precipitation cycle decreased as the altitude rose in the sta-tions above 3500 m and increased as the altitude rose in those below 3500 m. The empirical orthogonal function analysis in June precipitation, July precipitation and August precipitation showed that the June precipitation pattern field was similar to the July’s, in which southern Plateau was positive and northern Plateau negative. But positive value area in July precipita-tion pattern field was obviously less than June’s. The August pattern field was totally opposite to June’s and July’s. The positive area in August pattern field jumped from the southern Pla-teau to the northern Plateau.  相似文献   

Numerical modelling of rise and fall of a dense layer in salt diapirs   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Z. Chemia  H. Koyi  H. Schmeling 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,172(2):798-816

Numerical models are used to study the entrainment of a dense anhydrite layer by a diapir. The anhydrite layer is initially horizontally embedded within a viscous salt layer. The diapir is down-built by aggradation of non-Newtonian sediments ( n = 4, constant temperature) placed on the top of the salt layer. Several parameters (sedimentation rate, salt viscosity, perturbation width and stratigraphic position of the anhydrite layer) are studied systematically to understand their role in governing the entrainment of the anhydrite layer. High sedimentation rates during the early stages of the diapir evolution bury the initial perturbation and, thus, no diapir forms. The anhydrite layer sinks within the buried salt layer. For the same sedimentation rate, increasing viscosity of the salt layer decreases the rise rate of the diapir and reduces the amount (volume) of the anhydrite layer transported into the diapir. Model results show that viscous salt is capable of carrying separate blocks of the anhydrite layer to relatively higher stratigraphic levels. Varying the width of the initial perturbation (in our calculations 400–800 m), from which a diapir triggers, shows that wider diapirs can more easily entrain an embedded anhydrite layer than the narrower diapirs. The anhydrite layer is entrained as long as rise rate of the diapir exceeds the descent rate of the denser anhydrite layer. We conclude that the four parameters mentioned above govern the ability of a salt diapir to entrain an embedded dense layer. However, the model results show that the entrained blocks inevitably sink back if the rise rate of the diapir is less than the rate of descent of the anhydrite layer or the diapir is permanently covered by a stiff overburden in case of high sedimentation rates.  相似文献   

Thin elastic shells with variable thickness for lithospheric flexure of one-plate planets     

Mikael Beuthe 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,172(2):817-841

Planetary topography can either be modelled as a load supported by the lithosphere, or as a dynamic effect due to lithospheric flexure caused by mantle convection. In both cases the response of the lithosphere to external forces can be calculated with the theory of thin elastic plates or shells. On one-plate planets the spherical geometry of the lithospheric shell plays an important role in the flexure mechanism. So far the equations governing the deformations and stresses of a spherical shell have only been derived under the assumption of a shell of constant thickness. However, local studies of gravity and topography data suggest large variations in the thickness of the lithosphere. In this paper, we obtain the scalar flexure equations governing the deformations of a thin spherical shell with variable thickness or variable Young's modulus. The resulting equations can be solved in succession, except for a system of two simultaneous equations, the solutions of which are the transverse deflection and an associated stress function. In order to include bottom loading generated by mantle convection, we extend the method of stress functions to include loads with a toroidal tangential component. We further show that toroidal tangential displacement always occurs if the shell thickness varies, even in the absence of toroidal loads. We finally prove that the degree-one harmonic components of the transverse deflection and of the toroidal tangential displacement are independent of the elastic properties of the shell and are associated with translational and rotational freedom. While being constrained by the static assumption, degree-one loads can deform the shell and generate stresses. The flexure equations for a shell of variable thickness are useful not only for the prediction of the gravity signal in local admittance studies, but also for the construction of stress maps in tectonic analysis.  相似文献   

Numerical inversion of deformation caused by pressure sources: application to Mount Etna (Italy)     

E. Trasatti  C. Giunchi  N. Piana Agostinetti 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,172(2):873-884

The interpretation of geodetic data in volcanic areas is usually based on analytical deformation models. Although numerical finite element (FE) modelling allows realistic features such as topography and crustal heterogeneities to be included, the technique is not computationally convenient for solving inverse problems using classical methods. In this paper, we develop a general tool to perform inversions of geodetic data by means of 3-D FE models. The forward model is a library of numerical displacement solutions, where each entry of the library is the surface displacement due to a single stress component applied to an element of the grid. The final solution is a weighted combination of the six stress components applied to a single element-source. The pre-computed forward models are implemented in a global search algorithm, followed by an appraisal of the sampled solutions. After providing extended testing, we apply the method to model the 1993–1997 inflation phase at Mt Etna, documented by GPS and EDM measurements. We consider four different forward libraries, computed in models characterized by homogeneous/heterogeneous medium and flat/topographic free surface. Our results suggest that the elastic heterogeneities of the medium can significantly alter the position of the inferred source, while the topography has minor effect.  相似文献   

Automatic classification of dome instabilities based on Doppler radar measurements at Merapi volcano, Indonesia: Part I     

M. Vöge  M. Hort 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,172(3):1188-1206

Monitoring lava dome instabilities is crucial to efficiently monitor active dome building volcanoes. The Doppler radar technique provides a unique opportunity to gather information about the number of instability events occurring at the growing dome and about the dynamic processes that take place during different types of instabilities. So far, three different kinds of processes have been identified: sliding material, gravitational break-offs and explosive outbursts. In addition, Doppler radars provide rain measurements, which can be used to investigate possible correlations between rainfall and dome activity. Two radar systems have been installed at Merapi volcano in October 2001 and January 2005 to continuously monitor dome instabilities. Due to the large number of instability events that occur during times of high activity, manual processing and analysis of instability events is not practical for monitoring purposes. Therefore, an automatic classification system has been developed, which is capable of identifying different kinds of instabilities as well as rainfall. Two different kinds of classifier models have been applied: (1) neural network and (2) K-nearest-neighbour classifier model. Both classify Doppler spectra according to the underlying dynamic process, that is, rain, sliding material, gravitational break-off or explosive outburst. The classifiers are able to identify disturbances, which have no physical source, but are merely artefacts from the radar device itself. Because radar events are sequences of Doppler spectra, a rule set has been defined, which finally determines the event class. All classifiers have been trained and tested on independent data sets to estimate the classification performance. The overall classification rate is about 90 per cent. Discrimination of instabilities and non-volcanic events reaches about 98 per cent accuracy.  相似文献   

Earthquake prediction: probabilistic aspect     

G. Molchan  V. Keilis-Borok 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(3):1012-1017

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Quasi-static analysis of strike fault growth in layered media     

Nobuki Kame  Shuji Saito  Kenji Oguni 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(1):309-314

We study the effects of structural inhomogeneity on the quasi-static growth of strike-slip faults. A layered medium is considered, made up of an upper layer bounded by a free surface and welded to a lower half-space with different elastic property. Mode III crack is employed as a mathematical model of strike-slip fault, which is nucleated in the lower half-space and then propagates towards the interface. We adopt FEM-β, newly proposed analysis method for failure, to simulate the quasi-statistic crack growth governed by the stress distribution in layered media. Our results show that along planar traces across interfaces a compliant upper layer has significant effects on promoting/suppressing crack growth before/after its extension into the layer and vice versa for a rigid one. This proposes a possibility that surface breaks due to strike-slip faulting could be arrested by deposit layers at the topmost part of the Earth's crust.  相似文献   

Statistical identification of seismicity phases     

A. Pievatolo  R. Rotondi 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(3):942-957

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Seismic radiation from dynamic coalescence, and the reconstruction of dynamic source parameters on a planar fault     

Nobuki Kame  Koji Uchida 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,174(2):696-706

The dynamic coalescence of two mode II cracks on a planar fault is simulated here using the elastodynamic boundary integral equation method. We focus on the complexity of the resultant slip rate and seismic radiation in the crack coalescence model (CCM) and on the reconstruction of a single crack model (SCM) that can reproduce the CCM waveforms from heterogeneous source parameters rather than coalescence. Simulation results reveal that localized higher slip rates are generated by coalescence as a result of stress interaction between the approaching crack tips. The synthesized seismic radiation exhibits a distinct coalescence phase that has striking similarities to stopping phases in the radiation and propagation properties. The corresponding SCM yields a singular increase in the stress drop distribution, which is accompanied by a sudden decrease in it across the point of coalescence in the CCM. This implies that the generation of high-frequency radiation is more efficient from coalescence than from stopping, although both phenomena exhibit the same strong  ω⁻²  -type displacement spectra.  相似文献   

酸性环境干湿循环对泥质砂岩力学特性影响的试验研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘新荣  张梁  傅晏 《岩土力学》2014,35(Z2):45-52

由于库水位升降及降雨等原因,岩体经常处于干湿交替状态,对岩体工程的长期稳定性不利。以三峡库区泥质砂岩为研究对象,进行了酸性环境干湿循环交替作用后的常规单轴与三轴压缩试验研究,获得了泥质砂岩在酸性溶液浸泡干湿循环后的相关力学参数。相对于没有经过干湿循环作用的干燥试件,经过不同次数的干湿循环作用后,泥质砂岩的弹性模量、单轴抗压强度、黏聚力与内摩擦角都有不同程度的降低。各个力学指标的总体变化趋势是在第一次饱水之后有大幅度的降低,此后随着干湿循环次数的增加其降低的幅度逐渐减小。同时,酸性溶液的pH值对力学指标的影响很大,存在对泥质砂岩力学性能影响较大的一个临界pH值,低于此值酸性溶液对泥质砂岩力学性能影响显著增大,高于此值酸性溶液对其力学性能影响较小。  相似文献